Big banks see global economy slowing more in 2023, with likely U.S. recession

The world’s largest investment banks expect global economic growth to slow further in 2023 following a year roiled by the Ukraine conflict and soaring inflation, which triggered one of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycles in recent times.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 425 basis points since starting its current rate-hike cycle in March, sparking worries about a recession.

Real GDP (annual Y/Y) forecasts for 2023:

U.S. inflation forecast for 2023 and Fed terminal rate forecast:

U.S. central bankers see the Fed policy rate, now in the 4.25%-4.5% range after a 50-basis-point increase on Dec. 14, rising to 5.1% by the end of next year.

Bank

U.S. Inflation (annual Y/Y for 2023)

Fed Terminal Rate

Morgan Stanley sees the Fed delivering its first rate cut by December 2023, taking the benchmark rate to 4.375% by the end of that year. Barclays sees the rate between 4.25% and 4.50% by the end of next year, while Deutsche Bank sees it at 4.625% after a rate cut.

UBS expects U.S. inflation to be “close enough” to the Fed’s 2% target by the end of 2023 for the central bank to consider rate cuts.

Wells Fargo expects the Fed to begin its easing cycle in early 2024. BofA sees the rate between 2.75% and 3.00% by the end of 2024.

Forecasts for currency pairs, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries, S&P 500 target by the end of 2023:

Bank

EUR/USD

USD/CNY

USD/JPY

S&P 500 Target

U.S. 10-year yield

Most banks see the euro falling below parity to the dollar during the year, before clawing back by year-end.

As of 1042 GMT on Dec. 15, 2022:

EUR/USD : 1.06

USD/CNY : 6.968

USD/JPY : 136.68

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield : 3.49%

S&P 500 level (.SPX) (as of close on Dec. 14): 3,995.32